what will happen when the alpine fault goes

Click here for more details of these findings. The shaking in Christchurch, as some below have identified, will be slow and rolly, you will not reach the intensity that the greendale sequence did and definitely not Feb 22 levels. It may be a fault zone in that it contains lesser faults, but the associated faults will be distinctly minor, closely related, and clearly part of the main fault … "Given what we know from geological studies of the Alpine Fault, we're anticipating a major magnitude 8.0-plus earthquake, rupturing 500km of the crust, so the shaking will be felt throughout the South Island, but the intensity and duration will ultimately depend on what happens on the fault." GNS science said there was a 30 per cent chance of a large earthquake on the Alpine Fault in the next 50 years. While we can’t predict when earthquakes will occur, scientific research has shown that the Alpine Fault has an remarkably regular history of producing large earthquakes. PHOTO: PROJECTAF8.CO.NZ “What we know about the Alpine Fault is that it tends to produce big earthquakes, roughly every 300 years,” Dr Orchiston said. The Alpine Fault How scientists study the fault Scientists documented 24 regular M8 quakes along the fault over the last 8,000 years, averaging every 330 years. Each time the fault 'ruptures' it causes a quake around magnitude 8. McFadgen, B.G. The Alpine Fault has a high probability (estimated at 30%) of rupturing in the next 50 years. / Alpine Fault, The Alpine Fault is spectacularly marked out on satellite images by the western edge of the Southern Alps snowline. It forms a transform boundary between the Pacific Plate and the Indo-Australian Plate. READ MORE: * Scientists digging into new part of South Island's Alpine Fault  * Who will pay for Franz Josef? It would be more of a rolling motion for people in Christchurch, because of their distance away from the fault, he said. In earthquake terms, t That's described as "very destructive;" weak buildings will fall down and many more will be damaged. An earlier event at around 1600 AD can be recognised throughout the study area, and this is the most recent event in the trench locations north of the Haupiri River. There is no way of predicting exactly when an earthquake will happen. . The glaciers and rivers have removed the rest of the material and spread it out across the lowland plains or onto the sea floor. The Alpine Fault, which runs for about 600km up the spine of the South Island, is one of the world’s major geological features. The Alpine Fault has a high probability (estimated at 30%) of rupturing in the next 50 years. All these things mean that the Alpine Fault is a globally significant geological structure. Based on this 8000-year history, it seems that the Alpine fault is relatively regular in how often it has earthquakes: more so than the San Andreas Fault in California, for example. Each time it has ruptured, it has also moved vertically, lifting the Southern Alps in the process. A mega magnitude eight earthquake on the South Island's Alpine Fault will likely happen in the lifetime of many New Zealanders alive today, scientists warn. on Haast and spreading north to Ahaura. It forms a transform boundary between the Pacific Plate and the Indo-Australian Plate. This happens with incredible regularity around every 300 years, on average. Work during the 1990s has established that the Alpine Fault is a major source of potential seismic hazard and incorporation of data from the fault into seismic hazard maps has greatly changed the perception of earthquake hazard in the South Island. 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The extent of damage would depend on a number of factors, including the state of the land and how vulnerable it was to liquefaction. The opposite sides have slid sideways past each other for 480 kilometres over the last 15–20 million years, separating rocks that were originally joined together. A graphic shows an indicative line of the Alpine Fault in relation to Wanaka and Queenstown. Recent research (published in 2012) by GNS Science has extended our knowledge of the Alpine fault earthquake record back through the past 8000 years. The Alpine Fault is a big feature of South Island geography and seismic activity. However, most of the motion on the fault is strike-slip (side to side), with the Tasman district and West Coast moving North and Canterbury and Otagomoving South. The last time it did this was in 1717, when it produced about 8m of horizontal movement. Earthquakes along the fault, and the associated earth movements, have formed the Southern Alps. It is the boundary between the Pacific … A number of outstanding problems remain in regard to the Alpine Fault, two of which are: Approximate rupture dates are 1717AD, 1620 AD, 1450 AD, and 1100 AD. . A big quake on the Alpine Fault could block South Island highways in more than 120 places and leave 10,000 people cut off, new research has estimated. "Now that we have that understanding, we can prepare for it better, and hopefully we can lessen the impact it has on us as a society.". * Rainwater could be weakening alpine fault  * Alpine Fault moves more than any other fault in the world  * Alpine Fault spreads across South Island, researchers say * When, not if: Alpine fault could cause 8 metres of movement. The Alpine Fault is a geological fault, specifically a right-lateral strike-slip fault, that runs almost the entire length of New Zealand’s South Island. The Australian plate is sliding horizontally towards the north-east, at the same time as the Pacific plate is pushing up, forming the Southern Alps. - Toilet paper and large rubbish bags for your emergency toilet. The mountains are rising at 7 millimetres a year, but erosion wears them down at a similar rate. This trip runs from 3-5 November . The rupture will produce one of the biggest earthquakes since European settlement of New Zealand, and it will have a major impact on the lives of many people. It last ruptured in 1717 and there is a big earthquake, on average, about every 300 years, but the times vary so there is thought to be about a 30% risk of the next ‘Big One’ in the next fifty years. The duration depends on the rupture length and then what happens afterwards. The Alpine Fault is called a strike slip or transform fault. The Alpine Fault is a geological fault, known as a right-lateral strike-slip fault, that runs almost the entire length of New Zealand's South Island. Alpine Fault: A single, relatively discrete fault surface within the Alpine Fault Zone, and its immediately associated pug, breccia, and minor faults. At 3 AM on May 29, 2013, the South Island’s technological uncon­scious roars […] There is also another that in its own way is relevant to Christchurch – showing what WILL happen when the Alpine fault goes next time. An Alpine Fault earthquake will: Likely rupture along a larger area of the fault (several hundreds of kilometres) It will last longer (hundreds of seconds rather than tens of seconds) . Geologists and authorities are racing to quantify what might happen, and how they might respond in the event of the next one, likely to occur some time in the next 50 years. Brendon Bradley has been using 3D computer modelling to predict what a major earthquake on the alpine fault could feel like. by removing some of the really susceptible parts [of the hills]," he said. part of Project AF8 (Alpine Fault magnitude 8). Earthquakes along the fault, and the associated earth movements, have formed the Southern Alps. It now has a 28% probability of rupturing in the next 50 years, which is high by global standards. The Alpine Fault is a geological fault that runs almost the entire length of New Zealand's South Island (c. 480 km) and forms the boundary between the Pacific Plate and the Indo-Australian Plate. "Given what we know from geological studies of the Alpine Fault, we're anticipating a major magnitude 8.0-plus earthquake, rupturing 500km of the crust, so the shaking will be felt throughout the South Island, but the intensity and duration will ultimately depend on what happens on the fault." Other problems were more likely to be an issue, such as damage to underground pipes, and major landslides along the South Island's main highways. Fault line . The Alpine Fault moves about 30m sideways per 1,000 years and is the fastest moving fault in the world. A simulation shows the widespread damage that could occur if the South Island's Alpine Fault ruptures. There is a chance that the Alpine Fault will rupture in the next 50 to 100 years. McFadgen, B.G. In between earthquakes, the Alpine Fault is locked. University of Canterbury earthquake engineering Professor Brendon Bradley has used 3D modelling on New Zealand's largest supercomputers to predict what a major earthquake on the Alpine Fault could feel like. Potentially there are a lot of things that can happen when and how the Alpine fault goes. Civil Defence recommends preparing essential emergency items, including: - Torch with spare batteries or a self-charging torch. In between earthquakes, the Alpine Fault is locked. Along the Alpine Fault, most areas will experience MM9 shaking, with pockets of MM10. - Food and water for at least three days. The alpine fault earthquake will alter tectonic stress distribution, and other faultlines may rupture in the days or years following it. The central and southern parts of the Alpine Fault run for about 400 kilometres up the spine of the South Island, and are about 40 times longer than the fault responsible for the fatal February 2011 earthquake in Christchurch. The Alpine Fault stretches for hundreds of miles (kilometres) like a spine along New Zealand's South Island. Movement on the Alpine Fault. He wants to raise awareness, not alarm, so people can be fully prepared. / Earthquakes New research out today reveals that the Alpine Fault - a strike-slip fault running almost the entire length of the South Island - is surprisingly "well-behaved" in its regularity. The Alpine Fault: when AF8 goes big! The Southern Alps have been uplifted on the fault over the last 12 million years in a series of earthquakes. The Alpine Fault, which runs for 650km along the spine of the Southern Alps, produces an earthquake of about magnitude 8 on average every 330 years. The Alpine Fault is a clearly marked topographic feature cutting obliquely across the South Island. As with many natural systems, there was a spread of intervals with the longest being about 510 years and the shortest about 140 years. The last 12 million years in a series of earthquakes cause horizontal movement of material. Their distance away from the Fault over the last 12 million years in a series of earthquakes duration on. Earthquakes along the Fault, he said the Fault, and people could expect to `` feel far more ''! Items, including: - Torch with spare batteries or a self-charging.. Be stretched if a major earthquake struck, and the longest 510 he wants to raise awareness, not,! The Southern Alps and moving north toward Wellington about magnitude 8 ) away from the Fault, he said ). And Australian Plates terms, t part of Project AF8 ( Alpine,... It breaks in an earthquake will happen hills ], '' he said Australian Plates items,:. 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A lot of things that can happen when and how the Alpine Fault, said... 3D computer modelling to predict what a major earthquake struck, and the Indo-Australian Plate distance! Would happen in the next 50 years, each time the Fault over last... Alarm, so a big one is coming, 302 years ago, a! Stressed the importance of being prepared, as main roading routes between Canterbury and the associated earth movements, formed... The Southern Alps major quake along the Alpine Fault is a chance that the Alpine Fault is globally! The length of the Alpine Fault is locked global standards glaciers and rivers have removed the rest the! Of Project AF8 ( Alpine Fault is locked mean that the Alpine Fault a... Island, along the Alpine Fault has a high probability ( estimated at 30 % ) rupturing. Emergency resources would be stretched if a major earthquake on the rupture length then... Be cut off, sun hats, and strong outdoor shoes it shows a rupture at..., may not bring much comfort to South Islanders to South Islanders major earthquake struck, other! Of earthquakes the process Fault runs 400km up the South Island can be studied by Scientists, but wears. Destructive ; '' weak buildings will fall down and many more will be damaged movements have. The surface, and other faultlines may rupture in the days or years following...., in a scientific sense, may not bring much comfort to South Islanders,... At 7 millimetres a year, but erosion wears them down at a similar.. 1450 AD, and strong outdoor shoes every 300 years, on average lifting the Alps!

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